Prepared by Keshab Poudel
Present Context
The coming days are likely to
become more chaotic as political parties continue to find consensus elusive
even as they engage in the process of peace and constitution. Intensifying
internal dissensions among them only go to worsen the situation. Although political
parties have been able to narrow down several of their differences over
the future constitution, they are yet to agree on the forms of the government,
state restructuring and model of judiciary.
Positive Indication
Following the presentation of
the budget by finance minister Bharat Mohan Adhikari, there are good signs for
financial stability. Nepal's development partners also see it as positive. As
the new budget proposes partnership with the civil society, one can expect the
government will take the role of the civil society organizations positively.
According to economist, this budget stresses the role of cooperative
organizations in rural development.
The government has already
started to clear their files pending in the ministry, indicating that it wants
to boost development activities. In the last eight months, however, more than
five dozens of files were put in pending as the government denied them early
clearance. Obviously, the role of civil society organizations will be seen as
more important if political instability begins to reign again. AIN's role will
be more important to plead the case of INGOs working in Nepal.
The Home Ministry has
outlined some of the major security risks in Nepal, all of which, in nature,
have to do with the internal political situation. These are summarized below.
Key challenges will be
related to internal security in the hills and Terai. Unification of armed
outfits and the activities of ethnic and religious groups will create more
trouble. The Home Ministry draws the conclusion that Terai
area will be more vulnerable in the coming days.
Political Trends
The tendency
to interpret the agreement signed by the parties on their own differently and
the competition among them to achieve political benefits could lead to
non-completion of the lanews_id down agenda of completion of the peace process by 31
August 2011. Akhil Tarai Mukti Morcha led by Jay Krishna Goit has been
instigating Madhes-based parties to launch a stir against the government.
Ethnic and Madhesi outfits could disrupt the normal life if the parties
fail to meet the deadline.
Activities of Armed Groups in Terai
Armed groups
operating in the Tarai and eastern Hills are trying to unify as Akhil Tarai
Mukti Morcha led by Jay Krishna Goit. Samyukta Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha
(Pawan, Bhagat, and Rajanpratap) groups--have recently formed the Jantantrik
Madhesi Mukti Morcha. He sanews_id the Janatantrik Tarai Madhes Mukti Party led by
Bhagat Singh has been targeting local political leaders and civil servants in
the southern plains. These outfits were being supported by the CPN-Maoist led
by Matrika Yadav.
Polarization of Ethnic Communities
Polarization
of Madhesi forces, the ethnic, regional and religious activities, alliance of
different indigenous, Janajati, Madhesi, Dalit and republican fronts and the
Tharuhat Autonomous State Council are announcing they will not pay taxes if the
constitution is not promulgated within the stipulated time causing another
worry. People belonging to major caste groups-Chhetri and Brahmin-could also
hold organized
protests for the sake of their ethnic and communal rights,
Type of Activities
Potential risks of arson,
bomb blasts, extortions and other illegal activities, disrupting religious
harmony, bomb explosions at government offices and public places, murder of
civil servants, obstruction of highways, maneuverings of former royalists, the
agitation of political parties and formation of military wings by some armed
Madhesh groups could be visualized as likely manifestations of the risks. Political protection
to those involved in illegal activities and the failure to upgrade the police
force has hindered the government's efforts to contain criminal activities. The
supply and misuse of small arms, cross-border crimes, and negative impacts of
strikes and activities of organized criminal groups are other looming
challenges the nation will need to cope with in the days ahead.